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Canelo Alvarez vs. Avni Yildirim best bets, predictions: Finding values in the super middleweight title fight

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Returning to south Florida this weekend is major championship boxing as pound-for-pound great Canelo Alvarez is set to put his pair of 168-pound titles on the line against mandatory challenger Avni Yildirim at Hard Rock Stadium (which airs on DAZN starting at 7 p.m. ET). The matchup is a bit confusing on paper as Yildirim hasn’t fought in nearly two years and lost in his most recent outing, but boxing politics remain the name of the game if you want to hold all the belts. 

No matter the case, Alvarez will still make the walk to the ring on Saturday with both of his 168-pound titles on the line as a massive favorite. How massive? Alvarez is going off as a -6000 favorite to handle his business straight up against Yildirim. That means bettors would need to wager $6,000 just to return $100. But even those odds undersell how likely it is to see Alvarez have his hand raised at the end of the night.

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Odds like this may make it seem like the fight is prohibitive to finding wagers to place. But bookmakers always find a way to make action and this main event is no different. Prop bets and round betting are the name of the game if you want to find some value in south Florida and we’re going to take you through some options to consider as our best bets for Canelo vs. Yildirim. Odds come via William Hill Sportsbook.

Prop bets

Canelo Alvarez via KO, TKO or DQ

-1600

Canelo Alvarez via decision

+650

Avni Yildirim via KO, TKO or DQ

+2000

Avni Yildirim via decision

+3300

Draw

+3300

Fight goes the distance = Yes

+700

Fight goes the distance = No

-1600

The first thing that jumps out in the lines is the disparity between Alvarez via decision and the fight going on the distance. If you were to have interest in Alvarez taking a decision win, you get extra value by simply taking the fight to go the distance. It also provides some security in the unlikely event that Yildirim somehow scrapes out a win on the scorecards. Until a shift in the odds that makes Alvarez via decision a better line than the fight going the distance, taking that line should be out of the question.

The +700 odds for the fight going the distance suggests an implied 12% chance of that result.  

Yildirim’s fight with Chris Eubank Jr. in 2017 combined with Alvarez’s power has made Alvarez via knockout the frontrunner for method of result. In the Eubank fight, Yildirim was caught repeatedly by clean, blistering power shots and didn’t manage to get out of the third round before getting flattened.

Alvarez has true power, but also exceptional boxing skills. Despite that power, Alvarez only has a 29% knockout rate since 2017. Yildirim isn’t quite on the level of most of the men Alvarez has faced during that time. He’s not quite a Danny Jacobs or Callum Smith, and certainly not on the level of Gennadiy Golovkin.

Round betting

Canelo Alvarez Round 1

+650

Avni Yildirim Round 1

+12500

Canelo Alvarez Round 2

+600

Avni Yildirim Round 2

+12500

Canelo Alvarez Round 3

+500

Avni Yildirim Round 3

+12500

Canelo Alvarez Round 4

+550

Avni Yildirim Round 4

+10000

Canelo Alvarez Round 5 +600 Avni Yildirim Round 5 +10000
Canelo Alvarez Round 6 +700 Avni Yildirim Round 6 +10000
Canelo Alvarez Round 7 +900 Avni Yildirim Round 7 +10000
Canelo Alvarez Round 8 +1200 Avni Yildirim Round 8 +10000
Canelo Alvarez Round 9 +1600 Avni Yildirim Round 9 +10000
Canelo Alvarez Round 10 +2200 Avni Yildirim Round 10 +10000
Canelo Alvarez Round 11 +3300 Avni Yildirim Round 11 +12500
Canelo Alvarez Round 12 +5000 Avni Yildirim Round 12 +12500

Since 2010, Alvarez’s knockouts have come on average in the middle rounds with 14 knockouts averaging out to the sixth round. While the idea of an early knockout isn’t out of the question, Alvarez winning by knockout sometime between the fifth and seventh rounds seems solid. The odds for an Alvarez knockout in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds are +600, +700 and +900, respectively.

Picks

  • Fight to go the distance, YES: +700 (one unit)
  • Alvarez by KO/TKO in Round 5: +600 (0.5 units)
  • Alvarez by KO/TKO in Round 7: +900 (0.5 units)

Who wins Alvarez vs. Yildirim? And which prop is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Peter Kahn’s best bets for Saturday, all from the fight game manager who is 32-8 on boxing picks since the sport returned, and find out.

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