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Trends and odds for Michigan


Michigan survived the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. In this crazy tournament, that’s an accomplishment worth celebrating.  

Bettors in Michigan only have one home team left to back, so let’s focus on five trends to know for the Wolverines: 

Michigan will have some competition to make the Final Four

Michigan is the favorite to win the East region at BetMGM, of course, but they might face a couple teams that aren’t far behind in the odds. 

Michigan is +125 to win the East region and go to the Final Four. No other region has three teams at +300 or less odds to go to the Final Four, which speaks to the road the Wolverines face. 

Michigan’s next opponent is Florida State, which is +300 to win the region. Florida State is tall and athletic and will be a tough out. If Michigan gets by the Seminoles, the Wolverines could face a 2-seed Alabama that is just +200 to win the region. 

The East region is the only one with the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds still alive. 

Michigan coach Juwan Howard has led his team to the Sweet 16. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Michigan coach Juwan Howard has led his team to the Sweet 16. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

Wolverines have toughest Sweet 16 game of any top seed

The Wolverines are favored in their Sweet 16 matchup, but not by much. 

Florida State is a 3-point underdog for Sunday’s game. The only spread for the next round of the tournament that is less than 3 point is the USC-Oregon matchup between No. 6 and No. 7 seeds. 

Part of that could be a lack of faith in Michigan, in comparison to Baylor and Gonzaga. But it’s also a tougher draw than most of the remaining top-four seeds have in this round. 

Michigan is one of two teams left that BetMGM doesn’t want to win

The NCAA tournament started with BetMGM having a liability on three teams to win the title. Illinois is out, leaving Michigan and Gonzaga. 

Gonzaga has been a favorite all season and took a lot of bets to win it all. Michigan was +4000 to win the title when BetMGM released the odds before the season, and the Wolverines are down to +900. A lot of money has come in on Michigan the past two weeks, and 14 percent of the money bet on the title winner is on the Wolverines. Gonzaga is the only other team above 6.1 percent.  

Michigan was great to bettors during the season

The Wolverines are a tremendous 18-8 against the spread this season according to Action Network’s standings. That’s one of the best marks in college basketball. 

That has slowed down a bit, with Michigan posting a 2-4 record against the spread before covering against LSU in the second round. Michigan is 1-1 against the spread in the tournament, failing to cover in the first round against Texas Southern before pulling away from LSU on Monday. 

Michigan wasn’t good for over bettors, but that changed in the tournament

The Wolverines have a fantastic offense. They are No. 8 nationally in KenPom’s efficiency rankings. But taking the under on Michigan games has been a good bet. 

The under hit in 15 of Michigan’s 24 games before the NCAA tournament. That’s probably because the Wolverines are a great defensive team too, and don’t play at a fast pace. However, the over has hit in both Michigan games this tournament. The over/under of 147 in the LSU game easily hit the over as both teams scored 164 combined points. The over/under for Michigan’s game against Florida State is 143.5 points. 

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